The looming question on everyone’s mind as Bitcoin struggles below the $75,000 mark is: how long might this bear market persist? As market dynamics unfold, CryptoQuant’s research chief, Julio Moreno, shared his insights during a recent appearance on The Milk Road Show on February 2. He emphasized that an array of key demand and liquidity indicators continue to reflect weakness, suggesting that the process of finding a market bottom could take several months rather than just a few weeks.
Recognizing the Bitcoin Bear Market
Moreno’s analysis hinges on CryptoQuant’s “Bull Score Index,” which is a composite score derived from ten different metrics that assess on-chain valuation, liquidity conditions, market data, and one technical trend input. "This index ranges from zero to 100, where zero indicates extreme bearish sentiment and 100 represents bullish optimism," he explained. "Currently, the index hovers between zero and ten, which reflects a very bearish outlook. This situation has persisted for about a month and a half, indicating significant weakness in both data and market sentiment."
He pointed out that a notable shift occurred last October when the index plummeted from a robust 80—indicating strong bullish momentum—to a stark 20-30 range in just a few days. This rapid decline was indicative of a momentum failure, transforming what seemed like a late-cycle rally into a fleeting surge. Moreno's interpretation is clear: the index serves as an early warning signal that often trends bearish before significant price corrections happen, rather than merely confirming past trends.
Current Demand Dynamics
Turning to demand factors, Moreno highlighted the activity surrounding U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which he noted transitioned into net selling during the fourth quarter of the previous year and continued to negatively impact prices into early 2026. He referenced the year-to-date data showing that these ETFs sold over 10,000 BTC in January, starkly contrasting with their purchase of 46,000 BTC during the same period in the previous year. "If ETFs are net sellers, that certainly does not bode well for price recovery," he remarked, asserting that any meaningful comeback will necessitate a stabilization and increase in demand.
This pattern is further illustrated by the Coinbase premium—the price difference between Coinbase and offshore exchanges like Binance. Moreno characterized this premium as an indicator of U.S. demand and noted that it turned negative in November, remaining predominantly so since then. Historically, he stated that bull markets are often fueled by heightened U.S. demand; thus, the persistent discount suggests a lack of interest from U.S. investors even after recent downturns.
Stablecoin liquidity, another crucial factor, has also failed to provide the necessary support for market recovery. Moreno tracked the 60-day changes in the USDT market cap, which serve as a proxy for new capital entering the trading ecosystem, noting that growth has stagnated since mid-October. Fresh stablecoin issuance typically flows into exchanges, providing the liquidity needed for traders to buy cryptocurrencies, so its standstill directly impacts market liquidity.
Beyond just ETFs and stablecoins, CryptoQuant’s longer-term model for Bitcoin demand growth indicates minimal year-over-year growth at present. "Bull markets thrive on increasing demand waves," Moreno explained, highlighting that the sharp slowdown in growth since October contributes to the persistent downward pressure, even as the market attempts to find a solid support level.
Furthermore, the current leverage positions signal a deteriorating sentiment. Moreno analyzed perpetual futures funding rates as a gauge of long exposure appetite, noting a declining one-year average funding rate trend that indicates a diminished willingness to hold long positions. This dynamic requires careful interpretation, especially in distinguishing between market regimes.
Assessing Bitcoin’s Future
On the technical side, Moreno pointed out Bitcoin’s one-year moving average, which he views as a vital trend filter. "The one-year moving average effectively outlines the price trend, acting as support during bull markets and resistance when prices dip below," he suggested. Since Bitcoin crossed under this moving average in early November, it has struggled to regain that level, mirroring patterns seen in early 2022.
When discussing critical price points, Moreno identified the “trader on-chain realized price”—the estimated cost basis for active market participants—as presenting overhead resistance levels around $89,000 and $79,000. He considers $70,000 a crucial intermediate target, with $56,000 serving as a more profound level based on the same cost-basis perspective.
Moreno concluded with a psychological note, stressing the importance of acknowledging the current state: "We are undeniably in a bear market, so it's essential to plan accordingly. There will be price rallies, but don’t confuse these with the onset of a bull market. Avoid trying to catch a falling knife; the market's bottom may take months to establish."
As for when this bear phase might end, Moreno speculated that a credible bottom could potentially emerge by Q3 2026, based on historical trends and the fact that this downturn appears to have commenced earlier than some previous cycles. He cautioned that the timeline would heavily rely less on isolated price spikes and more on whether demand, U.S. flow, and liquidity indicators could stop stagnating and start showing signs of improvement.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was priced at $75,041.
